Once the dust and hysterical predictions of political earthquakes dies down, it is worth noting that Reform’s projected vote in a General Election based on this result would be 26%, way short of a Commons majority. A win usually needs close to 40% (Keir Starmer got in with 33.7%). And local elections are often an opportunity for a protest vote which evaporates when faced with a parliamentary election. The rest of the vote was bunched in a 16 to 19 per cent band between Labour, the Conservatives, Greens and Lib Dems.
The SNP’s national share of the vote, at 38.3%, was its lowest since 2007, suggesting voters had drifted away; and leaves FM Swinney short of winning the overall SNP majority he argued would be a mandate for holding a second independence referendum.
Plaid is now the largest party in Wales with 43 of the 96 seats. Under Wales’s new representative electoral system, at least 49 seats are needed for a majority. These results mean Plaid Cymru can comfortably form a minority government.
A Westminster coalition government ahead is not regarded with enthusiasm and as Andrew Neil points out would not allow for “tough-love welfare reform, massive rearmament, scrapping the Net Zero lunacies and prioritising policies that produce cheap, secure energy.”
It was an election undoubtedly driven by the unpopularity of Keir Starmer but with an electorate not exactly enchanted with the possible replacements.
Robert Shrimsley in the FT suggests it is likely in this flux that a broad left-right political balance will still hold in future with reach party taking in their close rivals. “The question is whether this moment marks a permanent shift to fragmented politics or simply a transition to two new but still similar power blocs. Is this the end of the duopoly or merely the end of the duopoly we are used to?”
Having absorbed all of the above it is still true that Farage has a talent for acting as an agent of change firstly in Brexit and now this. With his 8th house Aries Sun conjunct the UK’s 7th house (= close partnerships) North Node he clearly serves a purpose in wakening up the UK and forcing it to develop. Not that he himself is a beacon of light given his capacity for in-fighting, lack of staying power and more. He helicopters in for a reason, does the needful and disappears – a trickster. His Sun is conjunct Eris, the dwarf planet known as a conflict bringer and catalyst.
His Saturn in Pisces sits on the UK’s Pluto, both due for a shake-up, in his case mid to end of this month, and the UK in June onwards. It will be interesting to see what transpires, especially with the UK since that will rattle its yod hinting at a significant change in the UK’s destiny. Farage has tr Neptune conjunct his Mars late May to mid August and again on and off till early 2028 which is usually associated with failure. Tr Uranus crossing his Midheaven August to October this year and again in 2027 does suggest a radical change of direction in his life and career. His midpoints with one exception this month are less than upbeat for a couple of years ahead.
The Reform Party, 23 November 2018 has an adventurous Sun Jupiter in Sagittarius getting buoyed up by tr Uranus in opposition at the moment but it moves on to square Mars in Pisces which will start to get rattled from this July onwards. Very up and down, unstable, racketing around from highs to over-reaches and backfires. 2028 looks highly uncertain and confused.
Zack Polanski, 2 November 1983, Salford, England, a superficially charming and determined Sun, Venus and Jupiter in Scorpio with a publicity-attracting Neptune Mars conjunction may well have peaked with his Solar Arc Jupiter conjunct Mars keeping him afloat early this year. Ahead he faces an undermining Solar Arc Neptune square his Sun now and a Solar Arc Sun conjunct his Neptune in the next year or so.
His leadership from 2 September 2025 is upbeat at the moment though less so this autumn and on a sharp downhill slide later this decade.
The Labour Party, 12 February 1906 chart is descriptive of the mood of the moment with its Solar Arc Sun conjunct Pluto for a total blockage; and worse to come through 2027 to 2029. Keir Starmer’s relationship with this chart is rattled at the moment and threatening to split asunder with tr Uranus opposition the composite Sun later this month and again early in 2027.
Though the fear for Labour would be that a leadership change would not bring any better fortunes.
The Conservatives are still wrestling with old demons and attempting to rebrand their image for at least another year before they haul their feet out of the past.
The post UK politics – stirring up the pot first appeared on Astroinform with Marjorie Orr – Star4cast.
